A New Chance to Shine: Latin America’s Challenges and Opportunities for the Obama White House
DEVELOPMENTS:
One region that may prove surprisingly significant during President Barack Obama’s administration, despite eight years of relative neglect, is Latin America, which provides 30% of U.S. imports and is a nexus of critical allies. Obama stated his intention to increase the presence of the Foreign Service and Peace Corps, combat drugs via economic and social aid, and to meet face to face with Latin American leaders regarded as 'hard-line leftists.'
The new administration has several hurdles to address, however, particularly in Venezuela, Cuba, Mexico and Bolivia and must develop its relationship with rising power Brazil. Both Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales, the respective presidents of Venezuela and Bolivia, have expelled U.S. ambassadors, while Cuba continues to hold U.S. political prisoners and Mexico is a major source of illegal immigration and drug trafficking. Latin America may not start out as the highest priority for the incoming administration, ranking just eighth on a list of top 10 global economic challenges for Obama, but it is certainly rising in consideration.
BACKGROUND:
Over the past eight years the bulk of attention paid to Latin America by the Bush administration focused immoderately on countering militant leftists with threats of economic sanctions and aid suspension. As many nations in the region attempt to stabilize their economic and social structures amidst political instability and violence, a gulf of misunderstanding has sprung up between them and Washington.
In Venezuela, the fervent anti-American rhetoric coming from President Hugo Chavez has only escalated. In September, Chavez expelled U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy and Colombian authorities have discovered files revealing Chavez's intention to pledge $300 million to the FARC terrorist insurgency fighting the Colombian government, a major U.S. ally, has also been supported by Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa. Bolivia’s President Morales, who is similarly estranged from the United States, threw out Bolivia's U.S. Ambassador after accusations of inciting protests. He also removed representatives of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, alleging that they were conspiring against his presidency.
Venezuela's growing relationship with Iran and Russia and Chavez's intention to abolish presidential term limits are also developments to watch. Obama has announced his intention to meet the Venezuelan president without precondition but has also stated that sanctions should be initiated against any nation found to be supporting the FARC. Chavez has indicated a willingness to meet with the new American president.
Cuba poses a different challenge, with many Latin American leaders – including Bolivia's Morales - pushing for the trade embargo to be lifted and the nation's continued retention of U.S. political prisoners. Although relations between Washington and Havana are limited, President Raul Castro has made recent positive reforms and Obama has indicated that he will ease travel restrictions for Cuban Americans visiting family and allow unlimited monetary remittances. The embargo, however, will remain in place pending further developments. The incoming president will further push for the release of U.S. prisoners and, as with Chavez, is willing to meet with Castro face to face.
In Mexico, though President Felipe Calderon is a crucial U.S. ally, the primary concerns of an Obama administration will be the problem of addressing 12 million illegal immigrants and ongoing drug-related violence. The Merida Initiative, a multi-year plan to support counter-narcotics operations in Central America, had a budget of $500 million for Mexico in the 2008 fiscal year, and it is part of the new administration's plan to increase that investment. President Obama has put a heavy emphasis on prevention and prosecution, and stated the importance of securing the border. He has also pledged to fight illegal immigration through increased foreign aid and micro-financing for Mexican businesses. Obama will likely take a similar approach in Colombia, where the administration will utilize the Andean Counter-Drug Program to combat drug trafficking.
Brazil poses more of an opportunity than a challenge. Under President Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva, Brazil boasts thriving economic growth, major agricultural exports, and growing global power. It isleading Haitian peace-keeping efforts and holding Venezuela's anti-American agenda at bay. By strengthening relations with South-America's largest nation, the Obama administration will benefit from Brazil’s stable economy, recent offshore oil and gas discoveries, and successful production of cane-based ethanol, which stands in stark contrast to the unprofitable U.S. corn ethanol program. Perhaps, most importantly, in a region where leftist sentiment has grown, Brazil is leading Latin American regional efforts to economically integrate and create a Latin American Defense Council and may, indeed, prove a keystone for U.S. diplomacy in Latin America.
ANALYSIS:
Although Barack Obama espouses a 'direct diplomacy' approach to foreign policy, it is yet unclear what his approach to the region will be, beyond a focus on social policies, economic assistance, and a willingness to meet with his antagonists face to face. Recently confirmed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton noted in her confirmation speech that the administration will "pursue a strategy of 'smart power'" that pushes diplomacy to the head of foreign policy.
Two issues of concern that may come to the forefront are President Obama’s relative inexperience in the region – he has never visited Latin America and has relatively few advisors for the area–and his relatively protectionist stance towards free trade. Obama has opposed CAFTA, NAFTA, and the U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement amongst others and has vowed to protect American jobs from being "shipped overseas." The travel issue is easily fixed but the latter concern may prove more contentious to Latin American free-trade proponents.
The new president's acknowledgment of a need to address the region and to move it higher on the U.S. list of priorities, however, is likely to be met with universal approval. After years of neglect in the foreign policy of previous U.S. administrations, there are increasingly hopeful indicators that it may be once again Latin America’s time to shine.
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Jaclyn Selby has worked as a regional geopolitical consultant (Intellibridge, CastleAsia) and consults for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and for a National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency contractor.