Cyprus: An Island Long Divided
DEVELOPMENTS
In April 2009 Turkish Cypriot voters gave the hard-line National Unity Party a parliamentary majority for the Northern Turkish enclave, lending urgency to the long-standing Cyprus problem. Since 1972, the Eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus has been divided between de facto Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot zones. In that year, the Turkish military invaded Cyprus in the wake of a military coup backed by Greece, claiming its intervention was necessary to protect Turkish Cypriots. To this day, there is a Turkish military presence of 43,000 troops on the island.
The Turkish government continues to recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which makes up a little over a third of the island. It is the only nation to do so. The European Union, along with the rest of the international community, rejects the Turkish claim, and this point of dispute is a major obstacle to Turkey’s EU accession.
Ironically, the basis for an agreement has long existed: both sides generally agree on a bi-zonal, bi-communal federal formula. But the devil is in the details, and in this case the details are numerous. A 2004 plan developed by the United Nations was rejected in a referendum by Greek Cypriots who claimed the plan did not address property lost during the Turkish invasion and allowed a Turkish military presence to continue on the island.
Observers agree that the current round of peace talks, begun in September 2008, present the best hope to resolve this centuries-old conflict.
BACKGROUND
Throughout its history, Cyprus has witnessed many of the world’s great civilizations come and go. It was originally brought under Greek rule by Alexander the Great and was later a prosperous part of the Roman Empire. The island came under Ottoman control after a bloody and destructive invasion in 1571. Misrule under the Ottomans first sparked Greek nationalism among the Greek Cypriot population, which attempted several unsuccessful revolts.
The British took control of Cyprus from the Ottomans in 1878, allowing the island to avoid the worst of Greek-Turkish bloodletting that erupted elsewhere when the Ottoman Empire collapsed. Given that context, however, Turkish Cypriots were wary of Greek control, and disputes over the future of the island’s government escalated in the lead-up to Cyprus’ independence in 1960.
The 1960 constitution attempted to minimize disputes and created a rigid framework for power-sharing between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots. The president was to be a Greek Cypriot, the Vice President a Turkish Cypriot. The ministerial posts would be divided between the two groups in a specific ratio. Still, tension quickly arose over issues of taxation and municipal autonomy. By 1963, the government collapsed amid mutual recriminations, and fighting broke out, leading to a United Nations intervention.
A decade of peace proposals from various international diplomats yielded few results, as constitutional issues remained a sticking point. At the same time, a split emerged between Greek Cypriots who demanded union with Greece – unacceptable in the Turkish Cypriot view – and those who took a more conciliatory stance. In July 1974 a hard-line faction in the Cyprus National Guard executed a coup with the backing of a newly installed military junta in Greece. Days later, Turkey responded with a military invasion that resulted in the effective division of Cyprus, leaving the northern third of the island under Turkish military control.
The human toll of the invasion was steep: In addition to the thousands who died in the fighting, as many as 200,000 Greek Cypriots, who made up 82 percent of the population of the northern area, became refugees. The right of return – along with the question of property lost by Greek Cypriots during the invasion – became a major factor in Greek Cypriot rejection of the 2004 UN peace plan.
The subsequent decades have witnessed painstaking efforts by successive UN leaders to bring the sides closer together. In 1983, the Turkish Cypriots unilaterally declared independence, in a move that was condemned by the international community. Only Turkey recognizes the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
Recent events have raised the geopolitical profile of the conflict. In 2004 Cyprus joined the EU. Turkey’s membership bid requires it to come to terms with Cyprus. In addition to the issue of Turkish troop presence on the island, Turkey is committed to implementing a customs union with all EU members, which would mean opening its ports.
In this way, Cyprus is often seen as an obstacle to Turkey’s EU accession, the implication being that Cyprus wishes to block Turkey’s path. It is an implication that Andreas Kakouris, the Cypriot Ambassador to the U.S. disputes. Cyprus is not opposed to Turkey joining the EU, he explained in an exclusive interview with Foreign Policy Digest.
“We want to see Turkey in the EU because it presupposes a Turkey that accepts its commitments to the international community,” he said.
ANALYSIS
In past year, political tides have seemed favorable for a resolution. Current Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders share more common ground than at any point in the past. Indeed, peace talks begun in September 2008 appeared promising. Even the traditionally hard-line National Unity Party – the Turkish Cypriot faction that won April’s parliamentary ballot – has promised to support the process, following a signal from Ankara.
On the other hand, a resurgent Turkey has recently shown signs of its willingness to buck the West and pursue an independent foreign policy, raising questions as to its reliability as a partner in Washington. Recent instability in Greece could further undermine momentum for a deal. And developments within Cyprus itself could turn against a lasting settlement. In elections slated for April 2010 the Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat is expected to be replaced by a hard-line candidate.
The window for an agreement is therefore narrow. If a proposal is not agreed upon before April, analysts believe a hostile partition becomes increasingly likely. The result will be less security and prosperity on both sides of the island, a permanent thorn in the side of Turkey-EU relations, and the continuation of a long-standing dispute whose time for resolution is long overdue.
Teddy Kahn is a columnist for Foreign Policy Digest.