Mugabe in Zimbabwe: A Threat to Stability, Democracy
DEVELOPMENTS
Zimbabwe’s March 29th, 2008 parliamentary and presidential elections renewed political turmoil in the country. For the first time, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) lost parliamentary control to the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), an opposition movement led by Morgan Tsvangirai.
Election results were withheld for over a month, raising suspicions that Mugabe and ZANU-PF tampered with votes. When finally released, the election results showed that Tsvangirai received just under a majority of the votes, calling for an electoral runoff. Tsvangirai and Mugabe received 47.9% and 43.2% of the votes, respectively.
Tsvangirai withdrew from the presidential race only days before the June 27th runoff in response to political intimidation, threats, and violence directed at MDC supporters, which included beatings and rape. Tsvangirai’s supporters were also persecuted after the one-man runoff, as ZANU-PF members burned and looted their homes, forcing MDC supporters to seek refuge in embassies or flee the country.
United Nations Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon declared the June runoff illegitimate, and not “reflect[ive] of the true and genuine will of the Zimbabwean people.” Earlier in June, members of the international community—including both the South African Development Committee (SADC) and the U.N.—advised that the runoff be postponed, as the hostile political climate in Zimbabwe precluded a free and fair election.
Political leaders elsewhere voiced similar disapproval of the June elections. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for Mugabe to step down, declaring Mugabe’s re-election sullied by “bloody hands.” Similarly, President Bush denounced the elections a “sham.”
African Union leaders met on July 1 in Egypt and passed a resolution encouraging negotiations between Mugabe’s ZANU-PF and Tsvangirai’s MDC. Yet some African leaders have been criticized for being slow to condemn Mugabe and ZANU-PF. South African President Thabo Mbeki is accused of shielding Mugabe for political reasons, including Mugabe’s fight against apartheid and the ‘black liberation’ platform he pushed in his early political career. Other leaders see the situation in Zimbabwe as Africa versus the West, like Gambian President Yahya Jammeh, who announced that Africans should stand with Zimbabwe alone: “[The West] think[s] they can dictate to us and this is not acceptable,” CNN reported,“…after all, what did the West do for Africa?”
BACKGROUND
Zimbabwe has been ravaged by war since the early 1960s, when guerilla groups fought for Zimbabwe’s independence from Britain and competed for political power. The fighting between Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU) and Joshua Nkomo’s Zimbabwe African People’s Union (ZAPU), the two main guerilla groups hoping to control Zimbabwe’s government, displaced over 1.5 million people in the two decades before Zimbabwe’s independence in 1980. Zimbabwe African People’s Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) emerged in 1980 when Mugabe’s ZANU overtook ZAPU. ZANU-PF has remained in power ever since.
ZANU-PF led Zimbabwe’s first non-colonial government, with Robert Mugabe as Prime Minister. In 1987, Mugabe was elected Head of State and has remained President since. He was re-elected in 1996 and in 2002, and he claims re-election in the contentious 2008 presidential runoff.
Mugabe’s early political career gave him the reputation of a liberation hero —some supporters even compared him to South Africa’s Nelson Mandela. Mugabe rose to power on a platform of unity. He was the first black leader in Zimbabwe’s long history of white-minority government. Mugabe initially showed no signs of the racism that now defines his political rhetoric. He was perceived as a champion for black Africans who also promised a home for white Africans.
Yet Mugabe has done far more to repress Zimbabweans than to liberate them. He is responsible for the deaths of thousands of members of the Ndebele minority population, which has traditionally supported Mugabe’s political opposition, ZAPU. Mugabe manipulated state-owned militia and machinery to intimidate political dissenters, control dissemination of food aid, repress both the media and human rights groups, and force thousands of farmers to relinquish their land.
Mugabe’s years in power have incited both an economic and a social disaster in Zimbabwe. Unemployment has risen to over 85%, reports International Crisis Group (ICG), an international NGO based in Brussels. Zimbabwe’s inflation rate of over 1,000,000% is the world’s largest, according to the Wall Street Journal. Twenty% of the population suffers from HIV/AIDS and have little access to medical care or pharmaceuticals.
ANALYSIS:
The current situation in Zimbabwe threatens both the stability of surrounding nations and democratic processes throughout the continent. “What happens in Zimbabwe has importance well beyond that country’s borders. . . the situation in Zimbabwe represents the single greatest challenge to regional stability in Southern Africa today.” Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon declared in June. “”
Neighboring countries have borne the brunt of millions of Zimbabwean refugees who have fled Mugabe’s regime—3 million have already fled to South Africa, Botswana, and Zambia alone, The London Times reports. The influx has already caused food shortages and has burdened the economies of bordering nations. Yet the flow of refugees remains steady. Members of the U.N. Security Council in mid-July and the Group of Eight (G8) leaders at July’s G8 Summit in Japan discussed plans for alleviating the economic burden caused by refugees from Zimbabwe.
In order to immediately begin ameliorating the situation in Zimbabwe, NGOs like International Crisis Group are calling for a negotiated government between MDC and ZANU-PF, in which the two factions compromise to together govern Zimbabwe until the necessary conditions for a free and fair election are present. Zach Vertin, ICG Zimbabwe analyst, says that in addition to a coalition government, a successful strategy will include a timely plan for Mugabe’s exit from power.
The U.N. Security Council is debating a resolution to determine a plan of action for Zimbabwe and potential sanctions against Mugabe’s government. In a press briefing, U.N. Deputy Secretary-General Migiro stressed that in addition to a plan, the Security Council is prioritizing both accountability for atrocities committed under Mugabe’s regime and the importance of protecting Zimbabweans until the nation regains stability.