Nukes in North Korea
DEVELOPMENTS
On October 12th, 2008, South Korean Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee said although US and Korean intelligence services estimate that although North Korea’s president, Kim Jong Il, exercises control over his administration, Kim's health has "significant implications for the security of the Korean peninsula." Kim's health issues make strikingly clear the urgent need for a clear timeline for denuclearization on the Korean peninsula and restoration of the US-North Korea relationship. Kim's demise may result in an unpredictable leadership running a significantly destabilized North Korea, which currently possesses enough plutonium for 8 to 12 nuclear weapons.
In January, either John McCain or Barack Obama will shape a new course for US-North Korea relations. Both candidates agree that there is a need for verifiable, irreversible denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, but their speeches on the campaign trail suggest they may have divergent approaches. Sen. Obama has said he is willing to meet "unconditionally" with leaders such as Kim Jong Il, a point McCain has repeated on the campaign trail to buttress the criticism that Obama may be inexperienced in foreign affairs. McCain, on the other hand, has stated that he believes in diplomacy but will not meet with Kim Jong Il and has reportedly exhibited hostile sentiments toward the North Korean leader. Given the uncertainty of North Korea's domestic political situation tense state and the strained state of US-North Korea relations, how will each candidate affect the current state of US-North Korea relations and the North Korean nuclear problem?
BACKGROUND
North Korea recently agreed to demands to US nuclear inspection – a measure that the State Department rewarded by removing the long-time 'axis of evil' state from its list of terrorist countries. Though these steps represent modest gains in the troubled US-North Korean relationship, the need for complete and verifiable denuclearization is clear, especially in light of the North Korean leader's recent health issues.
Despite Kim's history of iron-fisted autocratic rule and erratic behavior, many Korean watchers point out Kim remains one of the most stable and predictable elements in North Korea. "The devil we know is less dangerous than the devil we don't know," said Ambassador Donald Gregg, former U.S. ambassador to South Korea during the George H.W. Bush administration, referring to the reality that there is currently no succession scenario in place if Kim dies. Some Korea watchers, such as Dr. Samuel Kim of Columbia University, have suggested that any power struggle following Kim's demise is likely to result in an even more hard line leadership in North Korea. The most pressing danger, however, is that in the event of Kim's death, it is unclear who will be in charge of North Korea's arsenal of nuclear material and possible weapons. Wendy Sherman, a former high ranking member of the United States Department of State under President Clinton, said of the rumors of Kim's deteriorating health: "Uncertainty in North Korea reminds us that having nuclear material and possible weapons not fully secured or known about increases the risk to the entire international community."
Given the potentially frail state of Kim, the next stage of American policy toward North Korea will have to emphasize the possibility of negotiating with North Korea without Kim Jong Il. Both candidates have said that denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is necessary but appear to disagree on approach. Obama has articulated his willingness to sit down with the North Korean leader. Ambassador Donald Gregg, foreign policy advisor to the Obama campaign, stated at a recent forum that Obama would support the signing of a peace treaty formally ending war on the Korean peninsula and the eventual establishment of diplomatic relations would be a major step forward. According to Gregg, Obama has said he would support joint economic projects such as Kaesong Economic Zone, which provide employment opportunities for North Korean military which would be expected to be scaled back at the DMZ. These developments would likely ease tension, build trust, and eventually pave the way for discussion of human rights issues, including the unequal food distribution in the country and the treatment of North Korean citizens and political prisoners.
McCain has stated that he is not willing to sit down unconditionally with leaders such as Kim Jong Il, citing the leader's numerous human rights violations against his own people. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed co-written with Sen. Joe Lieberman, Sen. McCain took a jab at Kim Jong Il, writing, "we must never squander the trust of our allies and the respect for our highest office by promising that the president will embark on an open-ended, unconditional personal negotiation with a dictator responsible for running an international criminal enterprise, a covert nuclear weapons program and a massive system of gulags." Speaking on McCain's behalf, New York State campaign chairman Edward Cox has stated that McCain understands the importance of diplomatic discussions but suggested during a recent presidential candidates forum that the Arizona senator harbors suspicion about the North Korean leader's intentions: "What is the real interest that Kim Jong Il is trying to promote here -- does he want to bribe a little bit more hard currency away from countries around him and if it is, how do we deal?"
ANALYSIS
North Korea has not been an explicit focus of either presidential campaign thus far, but the window for effective diplomacy and negotiation may be closing rapidly, particularly as Kim Jong Il's health is reportedly deteriorating and there is no succession scenario in place. The North Korean nuclear threat has been overshadowed by pressing domestic issues on the campaign trail and is unlikely to become a big talking point in the remaining weeks of the campaign. Unfortunately, the candidate who takes office may find himself negotiating with a much more unpredictable and dangerous North Korea.
Jung Hwa Song is a journalist in New York City. She received her A.B. from Princeton University and has conducted extensive field research
on Sino-North Korean relations.