Sino-Indian Relations and the Search for the Next Dalai Lama

DEVELOPMENTS

The People’s Republic of China has grown increasingly anxious about maintaining stability in its western regions, particularly Xinjiang and Tibet, where ethnic and religious minorities have staged large-scale protests and riots in the last two years. Beijing has repeatedly blamed the Dalai Lama for the Tibetan riots. The Communist Party Secretary in Tibet, Zhang Qingli, called the spiritual leader "a wolf wrapped in a monk’s habit, a monster with a human face and animal's heart” and bluntly acknowledged the tense state of relations, saying: “We are now engaged in a fierce blood-and-fire battle with the Dali clique, a life-and-death battle between us and the enemy." The harsh rhetoric has deepened the mistrust between the Tibetan people and the Chinese leadership. Beijing has similarly rejected the Dalai Lama’s repeated calls for constructive dialogue.

The Tibet issue has remained in the international spotlight for decades, due in large part to the charismatic appeal of the Dalai Lama. When he eventually passes, most scholars and analysts agree that Beijing will attempt to manipulate the power vacuum to its advantage. China’s strategy is two-pronged: first, to control the succession process of the Dalai Lama and, second, to ramp up pressure on India to discontinue its support of the Tibetan Government-in-Exile, which has existed in Dharamsala since the Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959. Chinese leaders have already successfully altered the process by which Tibet chooses high-level incarnate religious figures such as the Panchen and Dalai Lamas. By examining the selection process and analyzing how Tibet affects the Sino-Indian relationship, one can gain a greater understanding of Beijing’s potential strategy as well as the future of Tibet.

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