SPECIAL FEATURE: The Arrest of the World's Most Wanted Man
DEVELOPMENTS
Radovan Karadzic was arrested in Belgrade, Serbia, on July 21 after more than a decade in hiding. There have been riots and protests in Belgrade from Karadzic supporters, and celebration in Sarajevo. Officials of Republika Srpska (RS), the Bosnian Serb political entity, criticized the Bosnian government’s celebration.
Karadzic has since been transferred to The Hague to stand before the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY). At an initial hearing, he alleged irregularities in his arrest and reiterated his assertion — first made to Serbian media in March 2007 — that he and American diplomat Richard Holbrooke cut a deal in 1996 ensuring him legal immunity in return for his staying out of sight and not attempting to block the implementation of the Dayton Accords.
BACKGROUND
Karadzic was the president of the RS during the conflict in the 1990s. He had served as president of the Serbian Democratic Party and, as Bosnia prepared for independence, he organized parallel Serbian governing institutions which grew into the fully separate political entity Republika Srpska (today one of two entities that comprise the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina).
ICTY accuses him of committing war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide during the conflict, and reports indicate that he ordered the attack on Srebrenica — the only place in the conflict that an international court has determined genocide, rather than crimes against humanity, occurred. As many as 8,000 Muslim men and boys died in the attack.
Karadzic had been living in hiding in Belgrade, under an adopted name, in disguise, and working as a practitioner of alternative medicine.
The arrest comes as a relatively pro-Western Serbian government, under President Boris Tadic, seeks integration into the European Union and continues to resist Kosovo’s independence. Tadic, who expressed satisfaction with Karadzic’s arrest but cautioned that Serbs would expect a fair and impartial trial from ICTY, has faced death threats from Serbian extremists for his pro-Western attitude.
The arrest of Karadzic naturally eases diplomatic pressure on Serbia, which had been accused of dilatory conduct in turning over domestic war crimes indictees to international courts. This arrest — especially if followed by the arrest and transfer to The Hague of General Ratko Mladic, the second highest-ranking war crimes suspect still at large from the Bosnian conflict — should facilitate Serbian accession into the EU and thaw relations between Serbia and the West. Serbia has recently returned its ambassadors to EU countries that recognized Kosovo and is making an increased push for implementation of their EU Stabilization and Association Agreement, which is the first step toward closer integration with the European Union. A provisional trade agreement is anticipated next month, and Serbia has already signed a military partnership agreement with NATO. This is despite Serbia’s recent harder line on Kosovar independence, including litigating the legality of secession in the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Commentator Andre Gerolymatos argues that more is at stake for Serbia than EU accession — friendly relations with the West could allow Serbia to start a bidding war for Serbia’s petroleum industry, rather than accept a below-market Russian offer. Serbia has since announced that it will renegotiate the Russian offer, a possible precursor to a more robust bidding process. Gerolymatos notes that there will be consequences for pipeline projects across Eastern Europe.
In short, Serbia appears to have prioritized Western integration, a freer hand in Kosovo (including an ability to protect Kosovo’s Serbian minority, mostly concentrated in the north of Kosovo near the Serbian border, and strive for eventual partition), and deriving full value from its domestic oil industry over protecting Karadzic from arrest.
ANALYSIS
Though the news of Karadzic’s arrest was met with celebration in Sarajevo and consternation in Belgrade, the consequences for Bosnia are much murkier than those for Serbia. Former UN High Commissioner for Bosnia & Herzegovina Paddy Ashdown wrote that RS secession is becoming increasingly likely. If secession occurs, the consequences for minorities in each region could be serious, and further de facto ethnic cleansing — or even renewed violence — could occur. Bosnia’s high prosecutor is investigating the support network that sustained Karadzic, and further arrests will likely be forthcoming. Public reaction to those arrests will be telling.
For the United States and other Western countries, Karadzic’s arrest is joyful news, but tempered by the recognition that it alters the diplomatic situation and creates new challenges. The West must — as it has — reward Serbia for taking action to arrest Karadzic, and so reinforce the relatively pro-Western Tadic government in Belgrade. At the same time, the West must move slowly enough on integration to encourage Serbia to take further conciliatory actions, including the eventual arrest and extradition of genocide suspect General Ratko Mladic, commander of the Army of RS during the conflict. The West also must continue to manage the delicate process of Kosovar independence and resist the Serbian diplomatic offensive against recognition. Balancing support for Kosovo with continued incentives for Serbia to encourage further EU integration and cooperation with ICTY will be a difficult task.
Finally, Karadzic’s trial itself will be no mere formality. Like Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, Karadzic will represent himself before ICTY. Allowing the trial to become a circus — as often happens when accused war criminals represent themselves in court — or a sounding board for Karadzic’s personal political views will weaken the tribunal’s credibility in Bosnia, where international courts are already mistrusted because of the ICJ’s ruling last year declining to find Serbia directly responsible for the Srebrenica genocide. Karadzic’s allegations that he was guaranteed immunity by the State Department will be aired and re-aired at trial and debated throughout the Balkans. Former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Richard Holbrooke has rebutted them strongly, and in a swearing match Bosnians will probably tend to believe the person who is not accused of genocide against them. Should Karadzic’s assertions of a deal gain public traction, they could dramatically damage U.S. relations with Bosnia, which has been a reliable American ally since Dayton. However, should the trial run smoothly, and be followed by the arrest and conviction of General Mladic, it may finally provide needed closure on the conflict and enable the people of the Balkans to move forward.
In sum, Karadzic’s arrest is a great opportunity for the region and for the world. Handled properly, it can promote regional reconciliation and Serbian integration into the West. However, both diplomats and jurists face a difficult task in handling it properly, and missteps or a variety of external threats could destabilize Balkan integration into Europe, America’s relationship with various Balkan states, the independence process of the world’s newest nation, or Serbia’s own government.
Arthur Traldi is an attorney with the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. He previously worked with the War Crimes Chamber of the State Court of Bosnia & Herzegovina