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Iran and the Next Administration

Over the course of the Presidential campaign, John McCain and Barack Obama have clashed repeatedly over US policy toward Iran. McCain has staked out a hawkish position in contrast to Obama's willingness to negotiate directly with the Iranian regime. In practice, though, the two candidates' policies would likely be more similar to each other, and to the approach of the Bush administration, than campaign rhetoric would suggest. A variety of factors will limit the next President's freedom of action and will make either a U.S.-Iranian military confrontation or a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough unlikely over the next four years.