Election 2008 - October 2008

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Iran and the Next Administration

Over the course of the Presidential campaign, John McCain and Barack Obama have clashed repeatedly over US policy toward Iran. McCain has staked out a hawkish position in contrast to Obama's willingness to negotiate directly with the Iranian regime. In practice, though, the two candidates' policies would likely be more similar to each other, and to the approach of the Bush administration, than campaign rhetoric would suggest. A variety of factors will limit the next President's freedom of action and will make either a U.S.-Iranian military confrontation or a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough unlikely over the next four years.

October 29, 2008
Victor McFarland
Election 2008 - October 2008

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Rebuilding Alliances and Managing Expectations in a Post-Bush World

The next U.S. President will inherit a complex and dangerous set of foreign policy challenges: wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, a global financial crisis, the proliferation of nuclear weapons, instability in Pakistan, and competition from emerging powers like China, India, and a resurgent Russia. In its special coverage of the U.S. presidential election, The Economist describes the foreign policy environment as “the most difficult international situation since 1968.” Moreover, the next President will have to manage these issues at a time when America's economic power is in decline, its military resources are overstretched, and its ability to win sympathy or support from allies has been severely diminished. The American public is also likely to be preoccupied with the economic crisis and related troubles at home, making it even more difficult for the next President to pursue an internationalist agenda.

October 29, 2008
Annie Verderosa
Election 2008 - October 2008

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Nukes in North Korea

On October 12th, 2008, South Korean Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee said although US and Korean intelligence services estimate that although North Korea’s president, Kim Jong Il, exercises control over his administration, Kim's health has "significant implications for the security of the Korean peninsula." Kim's health issues make strikingly clear the urgent need for a clear timeline for denuclearization on the Korean peninsula and restoration of the US-North Korea relationship. Kim's demise may result in an unpredictable leadership running a significantly destabilized North Korea, which currently possesses enough plutonium for 8 to 12 nuclear weapons.

October 29, 2008
Jung Hwa Song
Election 2008 - October 2008

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Can Latin America Weather a Global Recession?

Latin America has a long history of disastrous financial meltdowns, which over the past twenty years include its largest economies, such as Mexico in 1994, Argentina in 2001, and Brazil in 1999. Those crises devastated financial institutions and created tremendous social instability, pushing many members of the middle class into poverty. Much like the current U.S. financial crisis, many of Latin America’s previous crises were the product of risky growth-centric economic policies and inadequate fiscal protections. As a result, many Latin American nations have enacted a wide range of important economic reforms over the past few decades, sometimes reluctantly in the face of pressure from international financial institutions. Moreover, in recent years several important countries have willingly pursued prudent financial policies that emphasize stable sustainable growth and include a number of protections from future crises...

October 29, 2008
Adam Benz
Election 2008 - October 2008

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How Obama and McCain Would Respond to Darfur

During the second Presidential Debate, moderator Tom Brokaw asked both candidates under what circumstances they would use “United States combat forces in situations where there's a humanitarian crisis, but it does not affect our national security.” The responses by Barack Obama and John McCain shed light on how each of them would respond to a conflict like Darfur...

October 29, 2008
Michael Kleinman
Election 2008 - October 2008